Analyzing Policies To Grow The Electric Vehicle Market In .

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WHITE PAPERFEBRUARY 2020ANALYZING POLICIES TO GROWTHE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET INEUROPEAN CITIESSandra Wappelhorst, Dale Hall, Mike Nicholas, Nic LutseyInternational Council on Clean t.orgtwitter @theicctBEIJING BERLIN SAN FRANCISCO WA S H I N G TO N

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work was conducted with generous support from the European ClimateFoundation, the Mercator Foundation, and the Aspen Global Change Institute.Peter Mock, Nic Lutsey, Georg Bieker, and Hongyang Cui provided critical reviewson an earlier version of this report. Any errors are the authors’ own.International Council on Clean TransportationNeue Promenade 6, 10178 [email protected] www.theicct.org @TheICCT 2020 International Council on Clean Transportation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEurope, now second only to China in growing the global electric vehicle market, hasrichly varied electric mobility support policies across its markets. Specifically, EuropeanUnion-level regulation supports electric vehicle deployment, but national and localactions vary. A broad mix of policies across government levels can overcome keybarriers of electric vehicle affordability, convenience, and awareness. Investigation ofthe underlying policy and market dynamics is critical.This report analyzes market trends and key national and local electric vehiclepromotion policies across Europe. Electric vehicle uptake and policies for passengercars are assessed for 15 metropolitan areas: Amsterdam, Berlin, Birmingham, Brussels,Copenhagen, Hamburg, Helsinki, London, Madrid, Oslo, Paris, Rotterdam-The Hague,Stockholm, Vienna, and Zurich. These areas represent high uptake markets with diversesupport activities within the greatest national electric vehicle markets. The analysisfocuses on key policies and the effects of incentives, charging infrastructure, andmodel availability on electric vehicle uptake.Figure ES-1 illustrates electric vehicle share of new passenger car registrations in 200metropolitan areas with more than 250,000 inhabitants in 2018, highlighting the 15areas of our analysis.OsloHelsinkiStockholmSelected metropolitanarea boundariesCopenhagen2018 EV sales share formajor metropolitan areas 1.0% 1.0% and 2.5% 2.5% and 5.0% 5.0% and 10.0% 10.0%Lower population andrural am-The HagueBrusselsParisViennaZurichMadridFigure ES-1. Electric vehicle share of new registrations in major European metropolitan areas.The figure shows that, in 2018, electric vehicle uptake, including battery electricvehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, differed considerably across areas andiICCT WHITE PAPER ANALYZING POLICIES TO GROW THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN EUROPEAN CITIES

countries. Electric shares were particularly high in Norway (Oslo 61%, Bergen 64%),Sweden (Stockholm 13%, Gothenburg 6%), the Netherlands (Amsterdam 7%, Utrecht6%), Finland (Helsinki 6%), and the United Kingdom (Birmingham 5%). In contrast, mostareas in Spain had lower uptake, including Madrid with a 1.7% electric vehicle share.Based on our assessment of the overall market and in-depth analysis of 15 selectedmetropolitan areas, the following main recommendations can be made for national andlocal governments looking to accelerate electric vehicle uptake.Apply a comprehensive mix of electric vehicle promotion actions. Most high electricvehicle-uptake markets have adopted policies addressing the various prevailingconsumer barriers of affordability, convenience, and awareness. London, Oslo, andStockholm typify this broad approach, with at least 15 actions each (of 20 actionscatalogued) across city and national levels. This research identifies the key actionareas: financial incentives to bridge the cost gap between electric and conventionalcars; programs to deploy charging infrastructure; and information campaigns to raiseawareness and increase visibility regarding available electric vehicles and their benefits.Introduce significant cost advantages for electric vehicles. Higher purchase costsfor electric vehicles compared to combustion-powered vehicles remain a barrier formany consumers. National and local one-time purchase subsidies and annual nationaltax breaks on vehicle registration and operation are common where electric sharesare high—for example in Amsterdam, Oslo, and The Hague. In contrast, markets whichhave largely not addressed cost barriers on car purchase or annual ownership tax(e.g., Brussels, Madrid) typically see slower electric uptake. Additional policies suchas discounts or exemptions on parking fees or parking permits, charging an electricvehicle, road tolls, and congestion charges can be powerful instruments at the locallevel to supplement national policies to provide further cost advantages for electricvehicle drivers.Support charging infrastructure to assure consumer convenience. Amsterdam,Oslo, Stockholm, and The Hague have built up dense networks of public chargepoints and experienced among the highest electric vehicle sales shares in the world.In addition, they have different local and national programs in place that supporthome and workplace charging. In markets such as Hamburg and Copenhagen with adense network of public charging infrastructure but a slower electric vehicle uptake,additional local actions (e.g., building codes, zoning, regulations, tax exemptions) tosupport the charging infrastructure—home, workplace, curbside—are key, especially asthe market broadens to those without dedicated home charging.As governments increasingly set higher targets for electric vehicles, European- andnational-level policies including CO2 standards and bonus-malus programs will becrucial to accomplish these goals. At the same time, cities have a key role to play inimplementing policies, building infrastructure, and taking advantage of local conditionsto overcome barriers to adoption. Although the market is still developing, cityleadership is demonstrating the path to transportation electrification in Europe.iiICCT WHITE PAPER ANALYZING POLICIES TO GROW THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN EUROPEAN CITIES

TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive summary. iIntroduction.1Electric vehicle policies in Europe. 3Electric vehicle purchase and operation .4Electric vehicle charging infrastructure. 7Electric vehicle strategies, procurement, and public awareness.11Summary.12Analysis of electric vehicle metrics. 14Electric vehicle uptake. 14Subsidies and taxes. 15Charging infrastructure. 19Model availability.21Summary.21Conclusions. 27References . 30APPENDIX.37iiiICCT WHITE PAPER ANALYZING POLICIES TO GROW THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN EUROPEAN CITIES

LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1. Cumulative electric vehicle sales from 2009 to 2018, and 2018electric vehicle sales share. 1Figure 2. Selected promotion actions assessed as part of the analysis.4Figure 3. Electric vehicle promotion actions applied in 2018 for at least sixmonths in selected European metropolitan areas. . 13Figure 4. Electric vehicle share of new registrations in major Europeanmetropolitan areas. 14Figure 5. Four-year tax difference between a BEV and gasoline VW Golf(left) and a PHEV and gasoline VW Golf (right). . 16Figure 6. Four-year cost difference comparing BEV over gasoline VW Golf(left) and PHEV over gasoline VW Golf (right) in relation to 2018 BEV andPHEV sales shares in selected European markets. .17Figure 7. Three-year cost difference between a BEV or PHEV and gasoline VWGolf in relation to 2018 BEV or PHEV passenger car sales in selected European cities.19Figure 8. Public charge points per million population and electric passengercar sales in 2018. 20Figure 9. Model availability of electric vehicles and share of electric passengercar sales in 2018. 21Figure 10. Overview of 2018 electric vehicle sales and selected policies. 22LIST OF TABLESTable 1. Selected national tax benefits for employees privately using electriccompany cars for the year 2018. 6Table 2. Selected national public charger promotion actions in 2018. 8Table 3. VW Golf variants selected for the analysis.15ivICCT WHITE PAPER ANALYZING POLICIES TO GROW THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN EUROPEAN CITIES

INTRODUCTIONEurope as a region is the second-largest market for electric vehicles globally, trailingonly China. In 2018, Europe’s electric passenger vehicle (EV) sales, including batteryelectric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), accounted for20% of the global total, compared to 50% in China and 19% in United States. In absolutenumbers, European electric vehicle sales increased by 34% from approximately300,000 in 2017 to more than 400,000 in 2018.BEV salesPHEV sales2018 electric vehicle sales 010%orwIc ayelS aN w ndet edhe erla nFi ndn sP lanSw ort ditz uger alUlanite Au nddK striinagB doel mgiFr umD ancen eG maLu erm rkxeam nybouM rgalIre taH lanun dgaSp rySl aiov nenLa iaB tviul agSl arov iaLi akth iauR anom iaaEs niatoCzeniachIR talep yuPo bliclaC ndroaG tiareece0Figure 1. Cumulative electric vehicle sales from 2009 to 2018, and 2018 electric vehicle sales share.These electric vehicle uptake developments are affected by a multitude of polices thatbreak down the prevailing barriers to electric vehicle consumer uptake. European andnational policies like regulations and incentives assure manufacturer investments andvehicle deployment, and reduce the electric vehicle upfront cost differences. As highconcentrations of motorized traffic greatly exacerbate urban air pollution and climatechange, cities have begun to use their authority to develop policies intended to steerand accelerate the transition to electric mobility. Limited availability of local-level dataon electric vehicle uptake and associated policies, charging infrastructure, and localpromotion activities often complicates the ability to assess the associated dynamics.This analysis fills an important gap in the research literature in terms of quantifyingelectric vehicle uptake in Europe in relation to promotion actions, focusing on a1ICCT WHITE PAPER ANALYZING POLICIES TO GROW THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN EUROPEAN CITIES0%2018 electric vehicles sales share60%300,000NCumulateive electric vehicle sales 2009-2018Electric vehicle uptake varies greatly across Europe. Figure 1 shows cumulative electricvehicle sales from 2009 to 2018, as well as 2018 electric vehicle sales share, for theMember States of the European Union (EU) (excluding Lichtenstein) as well as Norway,Iceland, and Switzerland in the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). The informationshown is based on data from EV-Volumes (2019) and the European Alternative FuelsObservatory (2019). In 2018, more than 50% of new cars sold in Norway were electricvehicles, bringing the cumulative total of electric vehicles sold in the country to almost270,000. Iceland, although a much smaller market with 8,000 cumulative electricvehicles, ranked second with a 19% electric share in 2018. Following Norway, Germany(211,000), France (205,000) and the United Kingdom (203,000) experienced thehighest absolute electric sales ov