The Consequences Of Global Climate Change For Complying .

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The consequences of global climate change forcomplying with Marine Strategy FrameworkDirective Indicators: results from DEVOTES projectAngel Borja and Mike Elliott

Introduction

IntroductioncetaceansseabirdsEleven Qualitative DescriptorsBiodiversityAlienFoodwebsSeafloor integrity29 criteria56 nLitterHydrography3Marine Strategy Framework Directive

IntroductionModified from: Borja, A., A. Murillas, M. Pascual, M.C. Uyarra, 2015. Marine and coastal ecosystems:delivery of goods and services through conservation. In: Ecosystem Services and River Basin Ecohydrology.Eds. L. Chícharo, F. Muller, N. Fohrer, E. Wolanski. Springer. ndards,targetsLoss of ecosystemservices (e.g.resources,biodiversity),structure s referenceconditions,assessmentmethodsPNeeds indices R(M)PolicyIncreasing resilience and functionality ofthe ecosystem components andsustainability of human activities(ecosystem-based management)

NaturalChangeOutside ManagementPlan AreaExogenic Unmanaged PressuresBoundaryManagementPlan AreaPSAII(W)ANaturalChangeSR(M)D.NPDR(M)I(W)Vision (W)IIISPExogenic Unmanaged PressuresNaturalChangeEndogenicManagedPressures

IntroductionGood Environmental Status (GEnS) under the MSFDIt is achieved when physicochemical (including contaminants, litter and noise)and hydrographical conditions are maintained at a level that main structuringcomponents of the ecosystem are present, allowing the functionality of thesystem to provide resistance and resilience (ability to withstand stress and alsoability to recover after a stressor) against deleterious effects of humanpressures/activities/impacts, maintaining and delivering the ecosystem servicesthat provide societal benefits in a sustainable way (i.e. pressures associated withuses cumulatively do not hinder the ecosystem components to retain their naturaldiversity, productivity and dynamic ecological processes, and recovery is rapidand secure if a use ceases)

IntroductionDifference toreference conditionsNone orsmallEcological StatusEnvironmental Status(Water Framework (Marine Strategy FrameworkDirective- WFD)Directive rtantPoorStrongBadNot Good

Introduction11 QualitativeDescriptors1. Biodiversity4. Foodwebs5. Eutrophication8. Contaminants6. Seafloor integrity9. Seafoodcontaminants3. Fishing2. NIS7. Hydrography10. Litter11. Energy

Climate change and MSFDPrimary drivers and consequences of marine global climate changeIncreased atmospheric CO2Physico-chemicalwater changesOceanacidificationLoss of polarice-coverAltered temperatureregimeSpecies redistributionChanges toclimatepatternsIncrease in relativesea levelPhysiographicchangesChanges tocoastalhydrodynamicsChanges toestuarineChanges tohydrodynamicsNAO/EAO andrainfall run-offPhysiologicalresponses

Climate change and MSFDSpecies re-distribution and community response due to altered temperature regimeAltered temperature regimeSpecies distribution changeNorthern/Southern species decrease/increase in areaIncreasedsusceptibility toalien & invasivespeciesDecrease of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ speciesChange in community structure & functioningFisheries repercussionsConservation management repercussions

Climate change and MSFDPhysiological and phenological responses due to an altered temperature regimeleading to ecosystem effectsAltered temperature regimeIncreased growing season and growth ratesDisruption of breeding cycleHigher & longer productivityNorthern speciesreproduction delayedSouthern speciesreproduction enhancedChanges to nutrient Symptoms of eutrophication (HAB, etc.)Change in community structure & functioningFisheries repercussionsConservation management repercussions

Climate change and MSFDPhysiographic changes due to increased relative sea level leading to ecosystem effectsIncreased relative sea levels“Coastal squeezeCoastal adjustmentIncrease in subtidal areaSet-back/managedretreatTidal area reductionWetland/habitat creationIncreased of prey/ feeding area & timeLoss of prey/ feeding areaIncrease in subtidal carrying capacityReduction in intertidal carrying capacityIncrease in refugiaChanges to community structure & functioningFisheries supportFisheries repercussions

Climate change and MSFDCoastal hydrodynamic changes due to increased climate variabilityleading to ecosystem effectsIncreased climate variabilityCoastal adjustmentIncreased frequency of Increased storminessrare and extreme eventsTidal area reductionIncreased needfor refugiaLoss of habitatMore frequentstorm surgesIncreased coastalIncreased coastalprotectionIncrease wave& estuarineheight & frequencyfloodingChange in preyLess natural functioningIncreasedavailabilitycoastal erosionDecreasedresilienceIncreased sediment deliveryChanges to community structure & functioning

Climate change and MSFDTopicsDescriptorI Altered temperature regime – species redistribution and community responseII Altered temperature regime – individualphysiological/phenological responseIII Increased relative sea-level rise physiographic changesIV Increased climate variability effects oncoastal hydrodynamicsV Changes to large scale climatic patternsdue to land run-offVI Increased relative sea-level risechanging estuarine hydrodynamicsVII Increased ocean acidification andseawater physico-chemical changesVIII Loss of polar ice cover and globaltransport repercussionsSum categories1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8910 11 83683 75 2211

Shifting baselines

Some conclusions . Impediments to implementing MSFD and achieving GEnS as result of climatechange:– Poor precise links between changes in biota and climate features (e.g. how abiotic factors controlthe vital processes; cause-and-effect understanding is needed; etc.).– Climate change produces ‘shifting baselines’ which need to be accommodated in monitoring– This can result in changes in reference conditions and impossibility to achieve targets and GEnS– More cost-effective spatial and temporal monitoring is required at the ecohydrodynamic ratherthan geographic scale ( but monitoring budgets are being reduced .).– Interactions amongst Descriptors and their changes due to climate change need addressing.– Challenges for marine monitoring and management by climate change superimposed on localactivities; climate change may either exacerbate, mask anthropogenic changes or cause failure toachieve GEnS.– Need to determine potential geographic disparity to achieving GEnS; hence, baselines needrevising on a site-specific basis although the evidence needs to be extrapolated to show the short,medium and long-term effects and the speed of environmental response– Society will place emphasis on the repercussions of non-achieving GEnS for the EcosystemServices and Societal Benefits.– Failure to meet GEnS because of climate change has wide-ranging legal repercussions and couldlead to a Member State being placed in infraction proceedings; legal challenge not because ofEndogenic managed activities but because of Exogenic unmanaged pressures; the legal defence,that the failure was the result of third-party actions, natural causes or force majeure, needssupporting by robust science.

and a last thought for discussion“ changing systems are not a problem for theecology, as it will adjust to any new situation andcreate a new equilibrium, they are only a problemfor society, i.e. we might not be able to obtain thesocietal benefits from ecosystem services that wewish to and we may not like the new ecology buteventually we will have to accept it ”

Dr Ángel Borja ([email protected])Twitter: @AngelBorjaYerroResearchGate Profile: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Angel Borja/Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id 245091062&trk tab pro22-23 June 2015, EUCC conference, Biarritz