World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision

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E c o n o m i c&S o c i a lUnited NationsNew YorkA f f a i r sWorld Urbanization ProspectsThe 2011 Revision

ST/ESA/SER.A/322Department of Economic and Social AffairsPopulation DivisionWorld Urbanization ProspectsThe 2011 RevisionUnited NationsNew York, 2012

DESAThe Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is avital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmentalspheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas:(i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social andenvironmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nationsdraw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates thenegotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses ofaction to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interestedGovernments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed inUnited Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and,through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.NoteThe designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not implythe expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the UnitedNations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined withfigures.This publication has been issued without formal editing.

PREFACEThe Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United NationsSecretariat is responsible for providing the international community with up-to-date and scientifically objectiveinformation on population and development. The Population Division provides guidance to the United NationsGeneral Assembly, Economic and Social Council, and the Commission on Population and Development onpopulation and development issues and undertakes regular studies on population levels and trends, populationestimates and projections, population policies, and population and development inter-relationships.The Population Division’s work encompasses the following substantive areas: the study of mortality,fertility, international and internal migration, including their levels and trends as well as their causes andconsequences; estimates and projections of the distribution of the population between urban and rural areas andin cities; estimates and projections of population size, age and sex structure, and demographic indicators for allcountries of the world; the documentation and analysis of population and development policies at the nationaland international levels; and the study of the relationship between socio-economic development and populationchange.This report presents the highlights of the 2011 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects including theofficial United Nations estimates and projections of urban and rural populations for major areas, regions andcountries of the world and of all urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2011. The data inthis Revision are consistent with the total populations estimated and projected according to the medium variantof the 2010 Revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections, published in WorldPopulation Prospects: The 2010 Revision1. This Revision updates and supersedes previous estimates andprojections published by the United Nations.Wall charts entitled Urban Agglomerations 2011 and Urban and Rural Areas 2011 will also be issued in2012. A CD-ROM containing major results of the 2011 Revision can be purchased from the PopulationDivision. A description of the databases and an order form are given on pages 111-117 of this publication andare also posted on the Population Division’s web site at www.unpopulation.org. All basic data and a completelist of data sources can be retrieved from an on-line database at the same web site.This publication may also be accessed on the website of the Population Division at www.unpopulation.org.For further information about the 2011 Revision, please contact the office of Mr. Gerhard Heilig, Chief,Population Estimates and Projections Section ([email protected]), Population Division, DESA, United Nations,New York, NY 10017, USA; tel.: (1 212) 963-4531, fax: (1 212) 963-2147.1World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations publication,ST/ESA/SER.A/313) and Volume II: Demographic Profiles. (United Nations publication, entation/publications.htm.United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population DivisionWorld Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revisioniii

CONTENTSPagePREFACE.iiiEXPLANATORY NOTES . viiiCLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY MAJOR AREA AND REGION OF THE WORLD .ixEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .1I.3KEY FINDINGS OF THE 2011 REVISION .II. URBANIZATION AND NATURAL HAZARDS . 17III. PROCEDURES TO ESTIMATE AND PROJECT THE POPULATION OF URBAN AREAS AND URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS . 31A.B.C.D.E.The estimation of urban indicators over the estimation period .Projection of the proportion urban at the national level .Past estimates of city populations.The projection of city populations.Principal symbols used.3335373941IV. DATA SOURCES OF NATURAL DISASTER HOTSPOTS . 43V. SOURCES OF DATA ON URBAN AND CITY POPULATION . 45A. Sources of data on the urban population . 45B. Sources of data for estimates of urban agglomerations and capital cities . 63REFERENCES . 109DATA IN DIGITAL FORM . 111ORDER FORM . 117TABLESNo1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.PageTotal, urban and rural populations by development group, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Percentage urban by development group, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Population of urban agglomerations with 10 million inhabitants or more, 1950, 1975, 2011 and 2025 .Population of urban agglomerations with 10 million inhabitants or more in 2011 and their averageannual rates of change, selected periods, 1970-2025.Population distribution of the world and development groups, by area of residence and size class ofurban settlement, 1970, 2011 and 2025 .Percentage urban by major area, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Total, urban and rural populations by major area, selected periods, 1950-2050 .Government views on the spatial distribution of the population, 2009 .Number of cities by number of natural hazards, class size (2011) and major area .United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population DivisionWorld Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision4468911121524v

NoPage10. City population (in million) by number of natural hazards, class size (2011) and region .11. Number of cities (750,000 inhabitants or more in 2011) by risk decile, type of natural hazard andcoastal status.12. Population for cities or urban agglomerations of 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2011 (in millions)by risk decile, type of natural hazard and coastal status .13. Cities and urban agglomerations (with 5 million or more inhabitants in 2011) exposed to at least onemajor natural hazard (8-10th risk deciles of natural disasters) .14. Top 10 largest city populations in 2011 at 8-10th risk deciles by type of hazard.15. Top 10 fastest growing city populations in 2001-2011 at 8-10th risk deciles by type of hazard.16. Urban areas (with 750,000 or more inhabitants in 2011) exposed to three or more natural hazards(8-10th risk deciles of natural disasters .17. Top 10 largest city populations in 2011 least exposed to natural hazards (no risk or 1-4th risk decilefor only one natural disaster .18. Distribution of countries according to the criteria used in defining urban areas, 2011 Revision .19. Distribution of countries or areas according to the criteria used in defining city populations,2011 Revision .20. Distribution of countries or areas according to most recent information available .21. Distribution of cities or urban agglomerations according to most recent information available II.XIX.XX.viUrban and rural population of the world, 1950-2050 .Total population in millions by city size class, 1970, 1990, 2011 and 2025 .Percentage of the population in urban areas, 2011, 2030 and 2050 .Distribution of the world urban population by major area, 1950, 2011, 2050.Contribution of demographic and urban growth to urbanization among the ten countries with thelargest increase in their urban population between 2000 and 2050, 1950-2050.Distribution of cities by population size in 2011 and risk of natural hazards.Distribution of cities by population size in 2011 and risk of floods.Distribution of cities by population size in 2011 and risk of droughts.Distribution of cities by population size in 2011 and risk of cyclones.Distribution of cities by population size in 2011 and risk of earthquakes.Percentage of population at highest risk of natural hazards (8th-10th risk deciles) .Percentage of population at highest risk of selected natural hazards (8th-10th risk deciles)by size class of costal settlement in 2011 .Percentage of population at highest risk of selected natural hazards (8th-10th risk deciles) by sizeclass of inland urban settlement in 2011, costal cities.Annual distribution of percentage urban .Growth rate of the urban-rural ratio (rur) by proportion urban (PU) for countries or areas with2 million or more inhabitants in 2011: selected country trajectories and fitted robust regression model.Growth rate of the urban-rural ratio by proportion urban for countries or areas with less than2 million inhabitants in 2011: selected coun